How El Niño Ruined Surf Fishing in 2026

There are dangerous surf fishing seasons after which there may be El Niño surf fishing in 2026. In 13 years of fishing the San Diego coast I’ve by no means skilled something near what this yr has put us via. It’d have been dangerous sufficient to expertise a easy stretch of tough surf. As an alternative, we’ve skilled a relentless, months-long grind of elevated swell, only a few home windows of excellent situations, and a light-weight deal with chew that by no means confirmed up the way in which it ought to have. It’s been the WORST yr of surf fishing I’ve ever seen. All that mentioned, the leopard shark chew appeared unaffected. All the pieces else, nevertheless… toast.

This text is my try to elucidate what truly occurred and why – as a result of I don’t assume it was random dangerous luck. I believe there’s a transparent story right here, and understanding it makes the frustration somewhat extra tolerable. To sum it up as concisely as potential…

It Began in February

Most years, February is quietly setting issues up for the season forward. Water temps in San Diego usually backside out at round 57-58°F – chilly by SoCal requirements – and the spring warming pattern begins in March and April as situations begin to construct towards peak summer season fishing.

February 2026 was totally different. Water temps averaged 61°F for the month, ranging as excessive as 63°F at factors. That’s 2-3 levels above the historic February common. Moreover, the air temp in So Cal was oddly heat via February. I recall atleast one week of 90+ diploma climate in inland San Diego county. On the floor that appears like excellent news – hotter water normally means extra energetic fish. However what it may need truly executed was sign the start of a season that was going to play by its personal guidelines.

That early heat was the primary signal that an El Niño sample was already influencing situations. The organic timing that governs when fish feed, when sand crabs emerge, and when the surf zone ecosystem prompts is calibrated to a particular seasonal temperature development. When February runs heat, that calibration will get thrown off earlier than the season even begins. The fish reply to environmental cues – bait availability, water temperature gradients, meals concentrations – and when these cues arrive out of sequence, the entire system will get pushed out of part.

The El Niño Impact – What It Truly Does to Surf Fishing

El Niño is a local weather sample pushed by unusually heat sea floor temperatures within the equatorial Pacific. It alters world climate methods in ways in which most individuals affiliate with winter rain occasions in California. However El Niño’s summer season results are simply as important for anybody fishing – and in 2026, we felt all of them.

Suppressed upwelling destroyed the meals chain from the underside up. In a traditional yr, coastal upwelling brings chilly, nutrient-rich water up from depth alongside the California coast. That nutrient pulse is the engine of the nearshore ecosystem – it feeds the plankton, the plankton feed the sand crabs and baitfish, and that whole meals chain attracts corbina, spotfin croaker, yellowfin croaker, and different species into the surf zone to feed. El Niño suppresses upwelling. Hotter floor water sits over the chilly nutrient-rich water and prevents it from reaching the floor. When upwelling weakens, the meals chain loses its basis – and the surf zone will get noticeably quieter in consequence.

Elevated water temps pushed fish out of their consolation zone. By mid-summer, San Diego seashore water temps had been working 74-75°F – effectively above the 67-68°F historic common for July and August. Some years that type of heat concentrates fish within the surf. This yr it seems to have pushed most of the species we goal north towards cooler water, or just redistributed them someplace inaccessible from shore. An area offshore angler I spoke with advised me that the marlin fishing has been a number of the finest in years and the coastal yellowtail chew has been distinctive too – the nice and cozy water that harm inshore fishing appeared to have helped offshore fishing in some methods.

El Niño fueled a extra energetic Japanese Pacific hurricane season, which drove the swell. That is the piece of the puzzle most surf anglers didn’t join. By June 2026, NOAA had confirmed creating El Niño situations with forecasters projecting an 82% probability of continuation via winter – and doubtlessly a really robust or tremendous El Niño occasion. El Niño reduces wind shear within the Japanese Pacific, creating favorable situations for tropical storms and hurricanes to type and intensify. That meant a extra energetic Pacific hurricane season sending a steady stream of south and southwest swell prepare after swell prepare into Southern California. Beginning in late Might and persevering with via the whole thing of the summer season, we acquired essentially the most constantly elevated surf I’ve skilled in 13 years on this coast. Weeks and weeks of tough water that churned up the surf zone, prevented sand crab beds from establishing, and made productive surf fishing classes the exception slightly than the expectation.

The Sand Crab Collapse

That is the place all the pieces converged into an ideal storm towards gentle deal with surf fishing.

Sand crabs are the first bait for corbina, spotfin croaker, and yellowfin croaker. They’re additionally the muse of the inshore meals net – the rationale these species congregate within the surf zone within the first place. In a traditional summer season, sand crabs are all over the place in good sizes by June and stay considerable via September. You discover them in beds, the beds are plentiful, and bait isn’t a limiting issue.

2026 was utterly totally different. The persistent swell sample that ran from late Might via summer season saved transferring sand on and off the seashores slightly than permitting the secure deposition that creates and maintains sand crab beds. Each time situations settled sufficient for beds to type, one other swell cycle hit and disrupted them. The outcome was months of inconsistent crab availability – largely micro-sized crabs in scattered, unpredictable areas, with dependable beds of good-sized crabs virtually nonexistent at many San Diego seashores. Tie within the lack of upwelling inflicting much less plankton and nutrient-rich water within the surf zone and there’s little or no purpose for sand crabs to be right here in any respect.

With out reliable bait, the sunshine deal with chew was compromised even on classes when fish had been current. And I do know from my very own classes on the water that there have been fish current – corbina and spotfin seen within the shallows on a number of events. However seeing fish within the shallows and catching them are two very various things. Moreover, the amount of fish I’ve seen actively working the shallows in 2026 is a fraction of what I see in a traditional yr. The disruption ran deeper than bait availability.

What the Numbers Say

I preserve detailed logs of each guided session I run. Trying on the knowledge from 2025 versus 2026 tells a narrative that goes past basic impressions.

In 2025, peak season July classes produced some stable fishing – a session the place we caught roughly 42 fish, a number of classes with 24-inch corbina and 21-22 inch spotfin, constant multi-species days with leopard sharks combined in all through. The notes learn like a season I’d be pleased with.

In 2026, the July log tells a distinct story. Periods the place we might see corbina within the shallows however couldn’t get them to chew. Periods the place surfperch had been the one species placing in constant appearances once we ought to have been into corbina and spotfin. The standard fish confirmed up sometimes – some genuinely good spotfin and corbina made appearances – however the total frequency has been dramatically decrease and the classes with a real combined bag chew had been uncommon in comparison with 2025 and years prior.

The one class that held up – and genuinely held up exceptionally effectively – was leopard sharks. We’ve landed 44 leopard sharks on guided classes via August 2026, with sharks exhibiting up in 19 of 32 logged classes by which we had been concentrating on sharks (many of the misses coming in latest classes). When the sunshine deal with chew was flat, the shark rod typically saved the day. On multiple session this yr the notes learn “horrible gentle deal with chew, however sharks made it worthwhile.” Leopard sharks have been the constant producer in a season that didn’t have a lot of them.

The Offshore Flip Aspect

It’s price noting that whereas the surf fishing suffered, the offshore and coastal fishing image was very totally different. An area offshore angler I spoke with described the marlin chew as a number of the finest lately and mentioned coastal yellowtail fishing has been distinctive – pushed by the identical heat water situations that disrupted the inshore fishery. Kelp paddies have been fishing effectively for yellowtail and dorado. The tuna chew has been common to under common with bluefin pushing northwest and primarily smaller yellowfin round, however total the offshore image has been robust. His expectation is that the autumn offshore chew in September via November must be stable.

El Niño years are inclined to work this fashion – the nice and cozy water that disrupts the nearshore inshore meals chain and pushes species north creates very favorable offshore situations on the similar time. The identical local weather driver has utterly reverse results relying on the place you’re fishing.

Is There Any Hope for Fall?

Truthfully? A small window, however don’t count on a dramatic restoration.

Fall surf fishing in San Diego is mostly inconsistent in regular years. The corbina and spotfin chew usually tails off from its summer season peak, although there will be productive home windows in September and into October when water temps start to tug again. Lure fishing tends to carry up a bit higher in fall – halibut stay catchable and calico bass will be in play. Shark fishing normally produces a couple of bounces as water temps start to chill, however by October and positively by November, the shark chew is usually winding all the way down to near-offseason ranges and light-weight deal with follows shut behind.

In a delayed season like 2026, there’s an argument that the autumn window may very well be barely extra productive than ordinary – the species we’ve been ready on all summer season are nonetheless current and doubtlessly extra energetic as situations enhance. However I’m managing expectations slightly than predicting a late-season growth. The disruptions that formed this season had been deep sufficient that a couple of weeks of calmer situations aren’t going to undo them in a single day – we want consistency and cooler water and climate.

The very best consequence for fall 2026 is a modest enchancment in gentle deal with fishing as water temps ease again, continued halibut and calico alternatives on lures, and a few cheap early-fall shark classes earlier than the chew slows for winter.

The Takeaway

2026 has been a yr outlined by forces largely exterior our management. A heat February that began the season off-beat. An El Niño sample that suppressed the nearshore meals chain, elevated water temperatures, and drove a extra energetic Pacific hurricane season that has saved constant south swell rolling via all summer season. Sand crab populations that by no means stabilized as a result of seashore situations by no means stabilized. A lightweight deal with chew that by no means absolutely arrived.

The silver lining – if there may be one – is knowing why. 2026 wasn’t an indication that SoCal surf fishing is declining or that the fish populations are in bother. It was an El Niño yr, and El Niño years do that. The situations that created 2026 are non permanent. The fish will nonetheless be there when issues normalize.

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